Hand of the Week, Vol. 2 No. 23

Here's a declarer play problem faced by North at the 10 July 2009 North American Pairs qualifying game. You opened a weak 2, LHO overcalled 3, and partner raised spades. The defense starts by cashing the AK, and you trump the J at trick 3. You're obviously going to lose one diamond trick too. If you're in 4 you need to avoid losing a trick to the Q to make it; if you're in 3 your contract is safe but you still want to take your best chance for the overtrick.

Dealer North None vul	A J 9 8 7 3 Q 2 T 4 K 8 5
Q 6 2 6 Q 9 7 6 3 J T 3 2		4 A K J T 7 4 K 8 5 9 7 6
	K T 6 9 8 5 3 A J 2 A Q 4

"Eight ever, nine never" is a nursery rhyme for beginning bridge players not yet ready to think for themselves. In the absence of any other information playing off the two top spades works a tiny bit more often than the finesse does (52% of the time.) But here you have some additional very important information: hearts broke 6-1. This leaves seven non-hearts in East's hand to twelve non-hearts in West's. We now expect that a key unseen card (like the Q here) will be with West 12/19ths (63%) of the time.

Cash the K (in case either opponent has a singleton Q) and then finesse against West.

Incidentally, as South I recommend bidding only 3, not going all the way to game. Notice that your partner had a maximum and still needed a finesse to make ten tricks. North would have made the same opening without the K and you'd need luck on your side to score even nine tricks.

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