Hand of the Week, Vol. 3 No. 5

On this deal from the Tuesday 23 February Junior Fund game, a thoughtful declarer can win one more trick than one who gives up or gets sloppy.

	A J 8 4 K T 6 T K T 6 4 2
	6 3 A 5 4 3 J 5 A Q J 8 5

At one table, North declared 4; at the other, 5. (The auction is best left unprinted, but it started 1-1-1.) You have plenty of trumps, but it looks like you have one sure loser in each of the other three suits. Ten tricks. The board was over after the bidding, right?

Not quite. It pays to distinguish between absolutely sure losers, and card combinations where there is even a tiny chance of avoiding the loss of a trick. On this deal, there is nothing to be done about the diamond or spade losers but there is a small chance of not losing a heart.

If you look up KTx opposite Axxx in a table of suit combinations, it'll tell you that the best play to win 3 tricks out of 4 in this suit is to lead small toward the king-ten; you will be able to set up your 4th heart if they break 3-3 or if West has QJxx(x).

But on this deal, that's not the way to play the hearts. You don't care about setting up your 4th heart; you can always ruff it if you need to. You do care about winning three tricks in a row in hearts if at all possible, and starting with a heart to the ten will never achieve that.

Dealer North NS vul	A J 8 4 K T 6 T K T 6 4 2
K T 7 2 Q J K 9 8 6 4 7 2		Q 9 5 9 8 7 2 A Q 7 3 2 9
	6 3 A 5 4 3 J 5 A Q J 8 5

Of the 64 possible ways the missing hearts might be distributed, it's possible to avoid a heart loser against four of them: a doubleton QJ on either side, or a singleton Q or J in East.

Cashing the king and ace works against the two doubletons - a 3.24% chance. Cashing the ace first, and then finessing the ten if East drops an honour under the ace, works against three cases (winning if West has QJ or East has a singleton Q or J, but losing a trick if East has QJ) - a 4.04% chance. (It's not necessary to know the actual percentage at the table -- just to be able to figure out which line works more often.)

It's not much. But it's better than nothing. And if you bid 5 on this board, a 4% chance of a top is better than a sure bottom for bidding too much. If you play it right, today is your lucky day: West has a doubleton QJ. (But at the table, the declarer in 4 found the right play and the one in 5 didn't.)

Typo corrected 03 March 2010: South has the A not a second K.

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