Hand of the Week, Vol. 4 No. 1

Your partner deals and passes. Your opponents have a quick auction: 1NT on your right, 3NT on your left, putting you on lead. What do you choose?

K Q 9
K 5 4 3
9 7 5
Q 7 4

If you automatically reach for "fourth down from your longest and strongest," declarer will sail home (with an overtrick, as the cards lie.) With a little more thought, you might ask yourself whether a heart lead from Kxxx really makes sense. There is only room for partner to have about 4 HCP; he may have zero. Even if you find partner with Axx or QJx, he will have nothing else, and declarer will just need a club guess to make his contract.

Your best chance to set this is to lead the K, hoping for a miracle Axxxx, or the more likely jack-high spade suit plus one other key card that will stop declarer from being able to cash nine fast tricks. The K is also the best lead at matchpoints, where you may opt for a safe lead that won't give away an overtrick rather than going all-out to try to set 3NT.

Dealer South NS vul	K Q 9 K 5 4 3 9 7 5 Q 7 4
A 5 A Q 7 A J T 4 9 6 5 2		T 6 3 J 8 3 Q 8 3 2 A K 8
	J 8 7 4 2 T 9 6 K 6 J T 3

Thoughtful defenders were rewarded, when this hand was played at the Great Falls sectional (Board 15, Saturday morning session, 22 February 2014): even if the diamonds come in, declarer needs a second heart trick for his contract. When the heart finesse loses, the defenders cash the spade suit. The recap sheet was covered with 430s and 400s; finding the right lead was worth a near-top.

A computer analysis of 1000 random 1NT-3NT deals confirms that the K is best. The spade blows a trick on opening lead about 25% of the time, compared to 42% of the time for the heart. The second-best lead, in fact, is not a heart but a passive diamond, costing a trick about 35% of the time.

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